Snapshot as of 2026-10-22
2026 Midterm Election Forecast
Who is favored, by how much, and according to whom. Forecast models, prediction markets and expert ratings, each labeled and sourced.
DDHQ Senate (D)
57.0%
DDHQ House (D)
78%
Projected post-election makeup
Projection — composite of published forecasts, not a poll
As of 2026-10-22 · DDHQ overview
Composite of Decision Desk HQ race-level win probabilities, Poliwave, Silver Bulletin, Kalshi and Polymarket chamber odds. This supplied composite is not a separate model or a recalculated forecast.
Senate (100 total)
51 for a majority51 D
49 R
Likely range: 48–55 D · Dem control probability: 57–75%
House (435 total)
218 for a majority235 D
200 R
Likely range: 217–249 D · Dem control probability: 78–92%
Governors (50 total)
26 for a majority26 D
24 R
Likely range: not supplied · Dem control probability: not supplied
flips current 24–26; 26 marks a majority of governorships, not legislative control.
Ranges and probability spans summarize the supplied forecasts; they are not a single model’s confidence interval. Senate control requires 51 Democratic seats; Republicans retain control at 50–50 via the vice president.
Key races and scenarios
- Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas Senate are R-held toss-ups where Democrats are 55–57% favorites; Democrats need three of those plus Alaska while holding Michigan
- If all favorites win: Senate 53–47; if toss-ups split 2–2: 50–50 and Republicans keep control via the VP
- House cushion is ~17 seats over 218; the downside tail is a 2022-style polling miss toward Republicans
- Likely governor pickups for Democrats: Alaska, Iowa, Ohio; Nevada and Georgia are coin flips; Kansas likely flips to Republicans
This page is built from a secondary, user-supplied snapshot dated 2026-10-22. Figures have not been independently verified against each source. Forecasts and market prices are probabilities, not poll results, and they change daily. Where a source link was not supplied we say so rather than guess.
Chamber control
Who controls Congress?
Current seat counts, the net gain Democrats need, and each model's probability. DDHQ updated 2026-10-22T14:18:00-04:00.
Senate
100 seats- Current D
- 47
- Current R
- 53
- D net gain needed
- +4
47 includes 2 independents caucusing with Democrats; Democrats need net +4 (R needs 50 + VP Vance tiebreak)
Forecast model Dem control probability
| Model | D win | Proj. D seats | As of | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ | 57.0% | 51 | 2026-10-22 | Source |
| Silver Bulletin FLIPR · Likely D | 75% | Not supplied | 2026-10-20 | Source URL not supplied |
| Poliwave | 55.0% | Not supplied | 2026-10-22 | Source |
| The Hill / DDHQ | 56.0% | 51 | 2026-10-14 | Source URL not supplied |
Prediction market Market-implied Dem odds
| Market | D price | Detail | As of | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 67% | $77,661,716 volume | 2026-10-22 | Source |
| Polymarket | 67% | Not supplied | 2026-10-22 | Source URL not supplied |
House
435 seats- Current D
- 214
- Current R
- 218
- D net gain needed
- +4
Democrats need net +4 for 218
3 seats are not accounted for in the supplied current-party counts.
Forecast model Dem control probability
| Model | D win | Proj. D seats | As of | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ | 78% | 236 | 2026-10-22 | Source |
| Poliwave | 89% | 231 (80%: 217-249) | 2026-10-22 | Source |
Prediction market Market-implied Dem odds
Joint outcomes
| Outcome | DDHQForecast model 2026-10-21 | KalshiPrediction market 2026-10-22 |
|---|---|---|
| D House + D Senate | 54% | 67% |
| D House + R Senate | 24% | 27% |
| R House + D Senate | 2% | 0.6% |
| R House + R Senate | 21% | 8.6% |
Percentages are shown as reported and not normalized; they may not sum to 100% due to rounding.DDHQ overview Kalshi balance of power
Governors
Statehouses: 36 races
Current counts as of 2026-10-22; forecast publication dates are shown below.
Current governors
24D / 26R
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Expert ratingAfter Oct 22 changes (OH Gov Toss-up→Leans D; MI Gov Leans D→Likely D), 26 governorships at least lean D vs 22 R; NV and GA are the only toss-ups
As of 2026-10-22 Source URL not supplied
Generic congressional ballot
National mood
These are poll averages and individual polls, not forecasts. Snapshot 2026-10-22; margins are shown as supplied, including source rounding.
Four polling averages
| Average | D | R | D margin | Detail | As of | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolling average | 50.4% | 42.1% | +8.3 pts | Window 9/28-10/19 | 2026-10-20 | Source |
| Silver Bulletin average | Not supplied | Not supplied | +8.9 pts | LV-adjusted: D+9.6 | 2026-10-20 | Source |
| FiftyPlusOne average | 51.9% | 42.8% | +9 pts | — | 2026-10-21 | Source |
| Track the Vote average | 49.9% | 40.7% | +9.2 pts | — | 2026-10-22 | Source URL not supplied |
Individual polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT/Siena | 10/12-10/19 | 3494 LV | 52 | 41 | D+11 | Source URL not supplied |
| CNN/SSRS | 10/15-10/18 | 1206 RV | 49 | 39 | D+10 | Source |
| ABC/WaPo/Ipsos | 10/9-10/13 | 2032 LV | 52 | 44 | D+8 | Source URL not supplied |
| Fox News | 10/9-10/12 | 1202 RV | 54 | 45 | D+9 | Source URL not supplied |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 10/16-10/19 | 1269 RV | 47 | 35 | D+12 | Source URL not supplied |
| Morning Consult | 10/12-10/18 | 17706 LV | 50 | 43 | D+7 | Source URL not supplied |
| Echelon Insights | 10/15-10/19 | 1010 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5 | Source URL not supplied |
| Rasmussen | 10/8-10/14 | 1789 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4 | Source URL not supplied |
Race-by-race
Closest races first
Ranked by how close the DDHQ Democratic win probability is to 50%. Flip badges appear only when DDHQ favors the party that does not currently hold the seat; none at exactly 50% or for vacant/unknown seats. Cook dates: Senate 2026-10-20, Governor 2026-10-13, House 2026-10-16.
Senate
35 races, closest DDHQ odds firstDDHQ 2026-10-22 · Cook 2026-10-20Forecast modelDDHQ Expert ratingCook
| # | Race | Held | Cook | DDHQ | D win % | Candidates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IA Senate Flip to D | R | Toss Up | Toss Up | 55.0% | Josh Turek (D) vs Ashley Hinson (R) Incumbent: OPEN (Ernst retiring) |
| 2 | ME Senate Flip to D | R | Toss Up | Toss Up | 56.0% | Troy Jackson (D) vs Susan Collins (R) Incumbent: Collins |
| 3 | OH Senate (Special) Flip to D | R | Toss Up | Toss Up | 57.0% | Sherrod Brown (D) vs Jon Husted (R) Incumbent: Husted |
| 4 | TX Senate Flip to D | R | Toss Up | Toss Up | 57.0% | James Talarico (D) vs Ken Paxton (R) Incumbent: OPEN (Cornyn) |
| 5 | AK Senate Flip to D | R | Toss Up | Lean D | 61% | Mary Peltola (Democrat) vs Dan Sullivan (Republican) Incumbent: Sullivan |
| 6 | KS Senate | R | Toss Up | Lean R | 35% | Adam Hamilton (Democrat) vs Roger Marshall (Republican) Incumbent: Marshall |
| 7 | MI Senate | D | Toss Up | Lean D | 68% | Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) vs Mike Rogers (Republican) Incumbent: OPEN (Peters) |
| 8 | SC Senate | R | Lean R | Lean R | 30% | Annie Andrews (D) vs Darline Graham (R) Incumbent: Graham (Darline Graham replaced late Lindsey Graham) |
| 9 | FL Senate (Special) | R | Solid R | Likely R | 22% | Angie Nixon (Democrat) vs Ashley Moody (Republican) Incumbent: Moody |
| 10 | NE Senate | R | Likely R | Likely R | 21% | Dan Osborn (Independent) vs Pete Ricketts (Republican) Incumbent: Ricketts Independent Dan Osborn challenge |
| 11 | MN Senate | D | Lean D | Likely D | 81% | Peggy Flanagan (D) vs Michele Tafoya (R) Incumbent: OPEN (Smith) |
| 12 | NH Senate | D | Lean D | Likely D | 84% | Chris Pappas (Democrat) vs John E. Sununu (Republican) Incumbent: OPEN (Shaheen) |
| 13 | GA Senate | D | Likely D | Likely D | 86% | Jon Ossoff (Democrat) vs Mike Collins (Republican) Incumbent: Ossoff |
| 14 | NC Senate Flip to D | R | Likely D | Likely D | 86% | Roy Cooper (Democrat) vs Michael Whatley (Republican) Incumbent: OPEN (Tillis) |
| 15 | LA Senate | R | Solid R | Likely R | 11% | Jamie Davis (Democrat) vs Julia Letlow (Republican) Incumbent: OPEN (Cassidy) |
| 16 | MT Senate | R | Solid R | Likely R | 11% | Alani Bankhead (Democrat) vs Seth Bodnar (Independent) vs Kurt Alme (Republican) Incumbent: OPEN (Daines) |
| 17 | MS Senate | R | Likely R | Likely R | 9% | Scott Colom (Democrat) vs Cindy Hyde-Smith (Republican) Incumbent: Hyde-Smith |
| 18 | AR Senate | R | Solid R | Safe R | 5% | Hallie Shoffner (Democrat) vs Tom Cotton (Republican) Incumbent: Cotton |
| 19 | KY Senate | R | Solid R | Safe R | 5% | Charles Booker (Democrat) vs Andy Barr (Republican) Incumbent: OPEN (McConnell) |
| 20 | IL Senate | D | Solid D | Safe D | 96% | Juliana Stratton (Democrat) vs Don Tracy (Republican) Incumbent: OPEN (Durbin) |
| 21 | NJ Senate | D | Solid D | Safe D | 96% | Cory Booker (Democrat) vs Justin Murphy (Republican) Incumbent: Booker |
| 22 | NM Senate | D | Solid D | Safe D | 96% | Ben Ray Luján (Democrat) vs Larry Marker (Republican) Incumbent: Luján |
| 23 | VA Senate | D | Solid D | Safe D | 96% | Mark Warner (Democrat) vs Bert Mizusawa (Republican) Incumbent: Warner |
| 24 | AL Senate | R | Solid R | Safe R | 4% | Everett Wess (Democrat) vs Barry Moore (Republican) Incumbent: OPEN (Tuberville) |
| 25 | ID Senate | R | Solid R | Safe R | 4% | Todd Achilles (Independent) vs Jim Risch (Republican) Incumbent: Risch |
| 26 | CO Senate | D | Solid D | Safe D | 97% | John Hickenlooper (Democrat) vs Mark Baisley (Republican) Incumbent: Hickenlooper |
| 27 | SD Senate | R | Solid R | Safe R | 3% | Brian Bengs (Independent) vs Mike Rounds (Republican) Incumbent: Rounds |
| 28 | TN Senate | R | Solid R | Safe R | 3% | Marquita Bradshaw (Democrat) vs Bill Hagerty (Republican) Incumbent: Hagerty |
| 29 | OK Senate | R | Solid R | Safe R | 2% | N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (Democrat) vs Kevin Hern (Republican) Incumbent: OPEN (Mullin) |
| 30 | DE Senate | D | Solid D | Safe D | 99% | Chris Coons (Democrat) vs Michael Katz (Republican) Incumbent: Coons |
| 31 | MA Senate | D | Solid D | Safe D | 99% | Ed Markey (Democrat) vs John Deaton (Republican) Incumbent: Markey |
| 32 | OR Senate | D | Solid D | Safe D | 99% | Jeff Merkley (Democrat) vs David Brock Smith (Republican) Incumbent: Merkley |
| 33 | RI Senate | D | Solid D | Safe D | 99% | Jack Reed (Democrat) vs Raymond McKay (Republican) Incumbent: Reed |
| 34 | WV Senate | R | Solid R | Safe R | 1% | Rachel Fetty Anderson (Democrat) vs Shelley Moore Capito (Republican) Incumbent: Capito |
| 35 | WY Senate | R | Solid R | Safe R | 0.5% | James Byrd (Democrat) vs Harriet Hageman (Republican) Incumbent: OPEN (Lummis) |
Governor
36 races, closest DDHQ odds firstDDHQ 2026-10-22 · Cook 2026-10-13Forecast modelDDHQ Expert ratingCook
| # | Race | Held | Cook | DDHQ | D win % | Candidates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NV Governor Flip to D | R | Toss Up | Toss Up | 51% | Aaron Ford (D) vs Joe Lombardo (R, inc.) |
| 2 | GA Governor Flip to D | R | Toss Up | Toss Up | 54% | Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) vs Rick Jackson (R) |
| 3 | OH Governor Flip to D | R | Toss Up | Toss Up | 60% | Amy Acton (D) vs Vivek Ramaswamy (R) |
| 4 | Alaska Governor Flip to D | R | Lean D | Lean D | 62% | open seat (Dunleavy term-limited) |
| 5 | FL Governor | R | Lean R | Lean R | 31% | David Jolly (D) vs Byron Donalds (R) |
| 6 | Kansas Governor Flip to R | D | Lean R | Lean R | 31% | Cindy Holscher (D) vs Ty Masterson (R) |
| 7 | New Hampshire Governor | R | Likely R | Lean R | 31% | Cinde Warmington (D) vs Kelly Ayotte (R, inc.) |
| 8 | Texas Governor | R | Lean R | Lean R | 30% | Gina Hinojosa (D) vs Greg Abbott (R, inc.) |
| 9 | WI Governor | D | Toss Up | Lean D | 72% | David Crowley (D) vs Tom Tiffany (R) |
| 10 | Iowa Governor Flip to D | R | Lean D | Lean D | 72% | Rob Sand (D) vs Zach Lahn (R) |
| 11 | AZ Governor | D | Lean D | Lean D | 73% | Katie Hobbs (D, inc.) vs Andy Biggs (R) |
| 12 | South Carolina Governor | R | Solid R | Lean R | 26% | Jermaine Johnson (D) vs Alan Wilson (R) |
| 13 | MI Governor | D | Lean D | Likely D | 76% | Jocelyn Benson (D) vs John James (R) |
| 14 | Oregon Governor | D | Lean D | Likely D | 81% | Tina Kotek (D, inc.) vs Christine Drazan (R) |
| 15 | Nebraska Governor | R | Likely R | Likely R | 18% | Lynne Walz (D) vs Jim Pillen (R, inc.) |
| 16 | Maine Governor | D | Solid D | Likely D | 84% | Hannah Pingree (D) vs Robert Charles (R) |
| 17 | New Mexico Governor | D | Solid D | Likely D | 86% | Deb Haaland (D) vs Greggory Hull (R) |
| 18 | Minnesota Governor | D | Solid D | Likely D | 90% | Amy Klobuchar (D) vs Lisa Demuth (R) |
| 19 | New York Governor | D | Solid D | Likely D | 90% | Kathy Hochul (D, inc.) vs Bruce Blakeman (R) |
| 20 | Connecticut Governor | D | Solid D | Likely D | 92% | Ned Lamont (D, inc.) vs Ryan Fazio (R) |
| 21 | Alabama Governor | R | Solid R | Likely R | 7.0% | Doug Jones (D) vs Tommy Tuberville (R) |
| 22 | Colorado Governor | D | Solid D | Likely D | 93% | Phil Weiser (D) vs Victor Marx (R) |
| 23 | Illinois Governor | D | Solid D | Likely D | 94% | JB Pritzker (D, inc.) vs Darren Bailey (R) |
| 24 | Tennessee Governor | R | Solid R | Likely R | 6% | Jerri Green (D) vs Marsha Blackburn (R) |
| 25 | Vermont Governor | R | Likely R | Likely R | 6% | Amanda Janoo (D) vs Phil Scott (R, inc.) |
| 26 | California Governor | D | Solid D | Safe D | 96% | Xavier Becerra (D) vs Steve Hilton (R) |
| 27 | Pennsylvania Governor | D | Solid D | Safe D | 96% | Josh Shapiro (D, inc.) vs Stacy Garrity (R) |
| 28 | Rhode Island Governor | D | Solid D | Safe D | 96% | Helena Foulkes (D) vs Aaron Guckian (R); Ken Block (I) |
| 29 | Oklahoma Governor | R | Likely R | Safe R | 4% | Cyndi Munson (D) vs Mike Mazzei (R) |
| 30 | South Dakota Governor | R | Solid R | Safe R | 3% | Dan Ahlers (D) vs Larry Rhoden (R, inc.) |
| 31 | Arkansas Governor | R | Solid R | Safe R | 2% | Fred Love (D) vs Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R, inc.) |
| 32 | Hawaii Governor | D | Solid D | Safe D | 99% | Josh Green (D, inc.) vs Gary Cordery (R) |
| 33 | Massachusetts Governor | D | Solid D | Safe D | 99% | Maura Healey (D, inc.) vs Michael Minogue (R) |
| 34 | Idaho Governor | R | Solid R | Safe R | 0.5% | Terri Pickens (D) vs Brad Little (R, inc.) |
| 35 | Maryland Governor | D | Solid D | Safe D | 99.5% | Wes Moore (D, inc.) vs Dan Cox (R) |
| 36 | Wyoming Governor | R | Solid R | Safe R | 0.5% | Ken Casner (D) vs Eric Barlow (R) |
House (competitive districts supplied)
Cook's House counts (as of 2026-10-16) list 79 non-solid districts, and the snapshot supplies 79. The remaining districts are rated Solid by Cook and are not listed here.
79 races, closest DDHQ odds firstDDHQ 2026-10-22 · Cook 2026-10-16Forecast modelDDHQ Expert ratingCook
| # | Race | Held | Cook | DDHQ | D win % | Candidates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OH-07 House | R | Toss Up | Toss Up | 50% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Miller (R) |
| 2 | TX-15 House Flip to D | R | Toss Up | Toss Up | 54% | Bobby Pulido (Democrat) vs Monica De La Cruz (Republican) Incumbent: De La Cruz (R) |
| 3 | NC-11 House Flip to D | R | Toss Up | Toss Up | 54% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Edwards, R) |
| 4 | PA-08 House Flip to D | R | Toss Up | Toss Up | 56.0% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Bresnahan (R) |
| 5 | ME-02 House | D | Lean R | Toss Up | 56.0% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Golden, D) |
| 6 | TX-35 House | D | Lean R | Toss Up | 56.0% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Casar, D; redrawn) |
| 7 | IA-02 House Flip to D | R | Toss Up | Toss Up | 57.0% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Hinson, R) |
| 8 | FL-22 House | D | Toss Up | Toss Up | 58.0% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Frankel, D) |
| 9 | NY-17 House Flip to D | R | Toss Up | Toss Up | 60% | Cait Conley (Democrat) vs Mike Lawler (Republican) Incumbent: Lawler (R) |
| 10 | NC-01 House | D | Toss Up | Toss Up | 60% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Davis (D) |
| 11 | MI-04 House | R | Toss Up | Lean R | 39% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Huizenga (R) |
| 12 | MI-10 House Flip to D | R | Toss Up | Lean D | 62% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (James, R) |
| 13 | PA-01 House | R | Lean R | Lean R | 38% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Fitzpatrick (R) |
| 14 | MT-01 House | R | Toss Up | Lean R | 37% | Sam Forstag (Democrat) vs Aaron Flint (Republican) Incumbent: OPEN (Zinke, R) |
| 15 | FL-09 House Flip to R | D | Likely R | Lean R | 37% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Soto (D; redrawn) |
| 16 | CO-03 House | R | Likely R | Lean R | 35% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Hurd (R) |
| 17 | KY-06 House | R | Lean R | Lean R | 34% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Barr, R) |
| 18 | FL-14 House | D | Toss Up | Lean D | 66% | Kathy Castor (Democrat) vs Mike Beltran (Republican) Incumbent: Castor (D) |
| 19 | WI-01 House | R | Lean R | Lean R | 33% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Steil (R) |
| 20 | PA-10 House Flip to D | R | Lean D | Lean D | 68% | Janelle Stelson (Democrat) vs Scott Perry (Republican) Incumbent: Perry (R) |
| 21 | FL-25 House | D | Lean D | Lean D | 69% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Moskowitz (D) |
| 22 | MN-01 House | R | Lean R | Lean R | 31% | Johnson (Democrat) vs Finstad (Republican) Incumbent: Finstad (R) |
| 23 | VA-01 House | R | Toss Up | Lean R | 31% | Taylor (Democrat) vs Wittman (Republican) Incumbent: Wittman (R) |
| 24 | OH-09 House | D | Toss Up | Lean D | 70% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Kaptur (D) |
| 25 | VA-05 House | R | Likely R | Lean R | 30% | McGuire (Republican) vs Perriello (Democrat) Incumbent: McGuire (R) |
| 26 | IA-03 House Flip to D | R | Lean D | Lean D | 71% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Nunn (R) |
| 27 | SC-01 House | R | Lean R | Lean R | 29.0% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Mace, R) |
| 28 | MO-02 House | R | Likely R | Lean R | 29.0% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Wagner (R) |
| 29 | TX-34 House | D | Toss Up | Lean D | 73% | Vicente Gonzalez (Democrat) vs Eric Flores (Republican) Incumbent: Gonzalez (D) |
| 30 | AZ-01 House Flip to D | R | Lean D | Lean D | 73% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Schweikert, R) |
| 31 | FL-13 House | R | Lean R | Lean R | 27% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Luna (R) |
| 32 | NV-02 House | R | Likely R | Lean R | 27% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Amodei, R) |
| 33 | PA-07 House Flip to D | R | Lean D | Lean D | 74% | Bob Brooks (Democrat) vs Ryan Mackenzie (Republican) Incumbent: Mackenzie (R) |
| 34 | FL-07 House | R | Likely R | Lean R | 26% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Mills, R) |
| 35 | AK-AL House | R | Likely R | Likely R | 25% | Begich (Republican) vs Hill (Independent) Incumbent: Begich (R) |
| 36 | CA-22 House Flip to D | R | Toss Up | Likely D | 77% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Valadao (R) |
| 37 | WI-03 House Flip to D | R | Toss Up | Likely D | 77% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Van Orden (R) |
| 38 | OH-01 House | D | Likely D | Likely D | 77% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Landsman (D) |
| 39 | AZ-02 House | R | Likely R | Likely R | 23% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Crane (R) |
| 40 | FL-16 House | R | Likely R | Likely R | 23% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Buchanan, R) |
| 41 | TX-23 House | Vacant | Likely R | Likely R | 23% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: VACANT |
| 42 | AL-02 House Flip to R | D | Likely R | Likely R | 23% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Figures (D; redrawn) |
| 43 | MI-07 House Flip to D | R | Toss Up | Likely D | 78% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Barrett (R) |
| 44 | FL-27 House | R | Lean R | Likely R | 22% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Salazar (R) |
| 45 | IA-01 House Flip to D | R | Lean D | Likely D | 79% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Miller-Meeks (R) |
| 46 | CO-05 House | R | Lean R | Likely R | 20% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Crank (R) |
| 47 | AR-02 House | R | Likely R | Likely R | 20% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Hill (R) |
| 48 | CO-08 House Flip to D | R | Toss Up | Likely D | 81% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Evans (R) |
| 49 | NM-02 House | D | Lean D | Likely D | 82% | Gabe Vasquez (Democrat) vs Greg Cunningham (Republican) Incumbent: Vasquez (D) |
| 50 | OH-15 House | R | Lean R | Likely R | 18% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Carey (R) |
| 51 | VA-02 House Flip to D | R | Toss Up | Likely D | 83% | Luria (Democrat) vs Kiggans (Republican) Incumbent: Kiggans (R) |
| 52 | NY-21 House | R | Lean R | Likely R | 16% | Blake Gendebien (Democrat) vs Anthony Constantino (Republican) Incumbent: OPEN (Stefanik, R) |
| 53 | AZ-06 House Flip to D | R | Toss Up | Likely D | 84% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Ciscomani (R) |
| 54 | NJ-07 House Flip to D | R | Lean D | Likely D | 85% | Rebecca Bennett (Democrat) vs Thomas Kean Jr. (Republican) Incumbent: Kean Jr. (R) |
| 55 | IN-05 House | R | Likely R | Likely R | 15% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Spartz (R) |
| 56 | NV-03 House | D | Likely D | Likely D | 85% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Lee (D) |
| 57 | CA-13 House | D | Lean D | Likely D | 86% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Gray (D) |
| 58 | OH-10 House | R | Lean R | Likely R | 13% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Turner (R) |
| 59 | NY-04 House | D | Likely D | Likely D | 87% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Gillen (D) |
| 60 | NE-01 House | R | Likely R | Likely R | 11% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Flood (R) |
| 61 | NH-01 House | D | Likely D | Likely D | 89% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Pappas, D) |
| 62 | KS-02 House | R | Likely R | Likely R | 11% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Schmidt (R) |
| 63 | CA-48 House Flip to D | R | Lean D | Likely D | 90% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Issa, R) |
| 64 | NY-19 House | D | Likely D | Likely D | 90% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Riley (D) |
| 65 | TX-09 House Flip to R | D | Likely R | Likely R | 10% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Green, D; redrawn) |
| 66 | NV-01 House | D | Likely D | Likely D | 90% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Titus (D) |
| 67 | NV-04 House | D | Likely D | Likely D | 90% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Horsford (D) |
| 68 | TX-28 House | D | Lean D | Likely D | 91% | Henry Cuellar (Democrat) vs Tano Tijerina (Republican) Incumbent: Cuellar (D) |
| 69 | WA-03 House | D | Lean D | Likely D | 91% | Braun (Republican) vs Gluesenkamp Perez (Democrat) Incumbent: Perez (D) |
| 70 | CA-45 House | D | Likely D | Likely D | 92% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Tran (D) |
| 71 | NY-03 House | D | Likely D | Likely D | 92% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Suozzi (D) |
| 72 | OH-13 House | D | Likely D | Likely D | 92% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Sykes (D) |
| 73 | VA-07 House | D | Likely D | Likely D | 92% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Vindman (D) |
| 74 | NE-02 House Flip to D | R | Likely D | Likely D | 94% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Bacon, R) |
| 75 | CA-21 House | D | Likely D | Safe D | 96% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Costa (D) |
| 76 | MI-08 House | D | Likely D | Safe D | 97% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: McDonald Rivet (D) |
| 77 | IN-01 House | D | Likely D | Safe D | 97% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Mrvan (D) |
| 78 | MN-02 House | D | Likely D | Safe D | 97% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: OPEN (Craig, D) |
| 79 | NJ-09 House | D | Likely D | Safe D | 97% | Not supplied in snapshot Incumbent: Pou (D) |
FAQ
2026 forecast questions, answered
Short answers drawn from the same snapshot as this page (2026-10-22).
- Who is favored to win the Senate?
- Decision Desk HQ forecasts a 57% Democratic chance of Senate control, with 51 projected Democratic seats, as of October 22, 2026.
- Which Senate races are toss-ups?
- Cook rates Iowa, Maine, Ohio (special), Texas, Alaska, Kansas, Michigan as Toss Up.
- What is the generic ballot average?
- The RealClearPolling average is 50.4% Democratic and 42.1% Republican, a D+8.3-point margin, as of October 20, 2026. Other averages differ.
- How many seats do Democrats need for the House?
- Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats from the supplied 214-seat count to reach a 218-seat majority.
- When is Election Day?
- Election Day is November 3, 2026.
- What is the projected Senate and House makeup after the 2026 election?
- As of 2026-10-22, the supplied composite projection is Senate 51 D / 49 R and House 235 D / 200 R. Likely Democratic seat ranges are 48–55 D in the Senate and 217–249 D in the House. It projects 26 D / 24 R governorships. This is a composite of published forecasts, not a poll.