Alaska Senate Race 2026
Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-10-22.
Latest poll
Mary Peltola (Democrat)51%
Dan Sullivan (Republican)49%
Data for Progress, fielded 2026-10-08 to 2026-10-16
Cook rating 2026-10-20 · DDHQ forecast 2026-10-22. Win chance, not vote share.
n=694 / Not reported by source. RealClearPolling
Lead of 2 pts for Mary Peltola in a single poll. Not a win probability.
Ratings and forecast
- Cook rating
- Toss Up
- DDHQ rating
- Lean D
- DDHQ Dem win chance
- 61%
- Currently held by
- R
Candidates
- Mary PeltolaDemocrat
- Dan SullivanRepublican
Seat / incumbent: Sullivan
Poll history (14)
| Pollster | Field dates | Results | Sample / method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress | 2026-10-08 to 2026-10-16 | Mary Peltola (Democrat) 51%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 49% | n=694 / Not reported by source | RealClearPolling Original release |
| PPP** | 2026-10-14 to 2026-10-15 | Mary Peltola (Democrat) 48%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 47% | n=578 / Not reported by source | RealClearPolling Original release |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 | Mary Peltola (Democrat) 50%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 48% | n=1,200 / Not reported by source | RealClearPolling Original release |
| Alaska Survey Research** | 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-03 | Mary Peltola (Democrat) 51%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 49% | n=1,512 / Not reported by source | RealClearPolling Original release |
| NY Times/Siena | 2026-09-22 to 2026-10-01 | Mary Peltola (Democrat) 50%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 43% | n=504 / Not reported by source | RealClearPolling Original release |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30 | Dan Sullivan (Republican) 48%Mary Peltola (Democrat) 47% | n=737 / Not reported by source | RealClearPolling Original release |
| co/efficient | 2026-09-14 to 2026-09-17 | Dan Sullivan (Republican) 48%Mary Peltola (Democrat) 46% | n=799 / Mobile text responses and landline interviews of likely general-election voters; weighted by age, gender, race, education, registered party, and geography. | Poliwave Original release |
| New York Times/Siena University | 2026-06-15 to 2026-06-29 | Dan Sullivan (Republican) 47%Mary Peltola (Democrat) 45% | n=593 / Unknown | Poliwave |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-06-07 | Mary Peltola (Democrat) 49%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 44% | n=1,393 / Unknown | Poliwave |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-05-17 | Mary Peltola (Democrat) 48%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 44% | n=1,401 / Unknown | Poliwave |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-04-19 | Mary Peltola (Democrat) 49%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 44% | n=1,946 / Unknown | Poliwave |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-03-22 | Mary Peltola (Democrat) 50%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 46% | n=1,590 / Unknown | Poliwave |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 2026-01-16 to 2026-01-17 | Mary Peltola (Democrat) 49%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 47% | n=611 / Unknown | Poliwave |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2026-01-08 to 2026-01-11 | Mary Peltola (Democrat) 48%Dan Sullivan (Republican) 46% | n=1,988 / Text-to-online plus panel survey of 2,132 Alaska adults, including 1,988 registered voters, fielded January 8-11, 2026. Data were weighted by ZIP code, age, race, gender, education, party affiliation, political ideology, and 2024 presidential vote. The Senate question used a voting-probability overlay; its published response counts total 1,681. | Poliwave Original release |
Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.
More Alaska races
See this race in context on the tile map, colored by poll, DDHQ or Cook.
Open the polling map All races