Arkansas Senate Race 2026
Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-10-22.
Latest poll
Tom Cotton (Republican)50%
Hallie Shoffner (Democrat)41%
Wadlin (Libertarian)5%
Talk Business/Hendrix College, fielded 2026-10-10 to 2026-10-15
Cook rating 2026-10-20 · DDHQ forecast 2026-10-22. Win chance, not vote share.
n=709 / Not reported by source. RealClearPolling
Lead of 9 pts for Tom Cotton in a single poll. Not a win probability.
Ratings and forecast
- Cook rating
- Solid R
- DDHQ rating
- Safe R
- DDHQ Dem win chance
- 5%
- Currently held by
- R
Candidates
- Hallie ShoffnerDemocrat
- Tom CottonRepublican
Seat / incumbent: Cotton
Poll history (9)
| Pollster | Field dates | Results | Sample / method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talk Business/Hendrix College | 2026-10-10 to 2026-10-15 | Tom Cotton (Republican) 50%Hallie Shoffner (Democrat) 41%Wadlin (Libertarian) 5% | n=709 / Not reported by source | RealClearPolling Original release |
| Hendrix College | 2026-10-08 to 2026-10-13 | Tom Cotton (Republican) 50%Hallie Shoffner (Democrat) 41% | n=709 / Unknown | Poliwave Original release |
| GrayHouse (R) | 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-04 | Tom Cotton (Republican) 50%Hallie Shoffner (Democrat) 39% | n=550 / Unknown | Poliwave Original release |
| J.L. Partners** | 2026-08-14 to 2026-08-18 | Tom Cotton (Republican) 51%Hallie Shoffner (Democrat) 35%Wadlin (Libertarian) 4% | n=803 / Not reported by source | RealClearPolling Original release |
| J.L. Partners | 2026-08-14 to 2026-08-18 | Tom Cotton (Republican) 51%Hallie Shoffner (Democrat) 35% | n=803 / J.L. Partners statewide sample of Arkansas likely voters; mixed mode (150 live call, 450 SMS-to-web, 203 online). | Poliwave Original release |
| Talk Business/Hendrix College | 2026-08-11 to 2026-08-12 | Hallie Shoffner (Democrat) 47%Tom Cotton (Republican) 44%Wadlin (Libertarian) 3% | n=1,217 / Not reported by source | RealClearPolling Original release |
| Hendrix College/Talk Business & Politics | 2026-08-11 to 2026-08-12 | Hallie Shoffner (Democrat) 47.4%Tom Cotton (Republican) 44% | n=1,217 / Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College statewide poll of Arkansas likely voters. | Poliwave Original release |
| 2040 Strategy Group | 2026-07-17 to 2026-07-25 | Tom Cotton (Republican) 46%Hallie Shoffner (Democrat) 43% | n=586 / Internal poll for Hallie Shoffner for Arkansas (D); voter-file sample modelled to the likely electorate. Initial ballot test only; undecided not printed. | Poliwave Original release |
| GrayHouse (R) | 2026-02-07 to 2026-02-09 | Tom Cotton (Republican) 58%Hallie Shoffner (Democrat) 36% | n=550 / GrayHouse (R) statewide survey of likely Arkansas voters; reported by Brookland News. Initial ballot before candidate information. | Poliwave Original release |
Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.
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