Kansas Senate Race 2026
Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-10-22.
Latest poll
Roger Marshall (Republican)48%
Adam Hamilton (Democrat)47%
InsiderAdvantage, fielded 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14
Cook rating 2026-10-20 · DDHQ forecast 2026-10-22. Win chance, not vote share.
n=1,200 / Not reported by source. RealClearPolling
Lead of 1 pts for Roger Marshall in a single poll. Not a win probability.
Ratings and forecast
- Cook rating
- Toss Up
- DDHQ rating
- Lean R
- DDHQ Dem win chance
- 35%
- Currently held by
- R
Candidates
- Adam HamiltonDemocrat
- Roger MarshallRepublican
Seat / incumbent: Marshall
Poll history (17)
| Pollster | Field dates | Results | Sample / method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14 | Roger Marshall (Republican) 48%Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 47% | n=1,200 / Not reported by source | RealClearPolling Original release |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14 | Roger Marshall (Republican) 48%Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 47% | n=1,200 / Unknown | Poliwave Original release |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 | Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 48%Roger Marshall (Republican) 47% | n=1,200 / Unknown | Poliwave Original release |
| YouGov | 2026-09-24 to 2026-10-04 | Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 48%Roger Marshall (Republican) 45% | n=2,252 / Not reported by source | RealClearPolling Original release |
| GBAO (D) | 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-04 | Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 49%Roger Marshall (Republican) 44% | n=600 / Unknown | Poliwave Original release |
| Trafalgar Group* | 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-01 | Roger Marshall (Republican) 44%Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 44% | n=1,095 / Not reported by source | RealClearPolling Original release |
| NY Times/Siena | 2026-09-22 to 2026-10-01 | Roger Marshall (Republican) 47%Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 46% | n=605 / Not reported by source | RealClearPolling Original release |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-01 | Roger Marshall (Republican) 44%Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 44% | n=1,095 / Unknown | Poliwave Original release |
| Emerson* | 2026-09-15 to 2026-09-16 | Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 45%Roger Marshall (Republican) 43% | n=750 / Not reported by source | RealClearPolling Original release |
| Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Kansas | 2026-09-15 to 2026-09-16 | Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 44.8%Roger Marshall (Republican) 43.3% | n=750 / MMS text-to-web recruitment from an Aristotle voter file with additional PureSpectrum panel interviews; weighted by gender, education, race, age, and region. | Poliwave Original release |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | 2026-09-13 to 2026-09-16 | Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 49%Roger Marshall (Republican) 47% | n=800 / Unknown | Poliwave Original release |
| co/efficient | 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-10 | Roger Marshall (Republican) 49%Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 44% | n=915 / Not reported by source | RealClearPolling Original release |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | 2026-08-12 to 2026-08-16 | Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 44%Roger Marshall (Republican) 43% | n=800 / Unknown | Poliwave Original release |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-08 | Roger Marshall (Republican) 46%Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 45% | n=569 / Unknown | Poliwave Original release |
| GBAO (D) | 2026-07-08 to 2026-07-13 | Roger Marshall (Republican) 47%Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 43% | n=600 / Unknown | Poliwave Original release |
| GQR (D) | 2026-04-23 to 2026-04-27 | Roger Marshall (Republican) 49%Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 45% | n=500 / Unknown | Poliwave |
| Tavern Research (D) | 2026-01-26 to 2026-01-28 | Roger Marshall (Republican) 54%Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 46% | n=1,013 / Unknown | Poliwave Original release |
Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.
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