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Michigan Senate Race 2026

Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-10-22.

Latest poll

Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat)50%
Mike Rogers (Republican)48%

Marist, fielded 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-18

Cook: Toss UpDDHQ: 68% D

Cook rating 2026-10-20 · DDHQ forecast 2026-10-22. Win chance, not vote share.

n=1,185 / Not reported by source. RealClearPolling

Lead of 2 pts for Abdul El-Sayed in a single poll. Not a win probability.

Ratings and forecast

Cook rating
Toss Up
DDHQ rating
Lean D
DDHQ Dem win chance
68%
Currently held by
D

Cook source DDHQ source Forecast methodology

Candidates

  • Abdul El-SayedDemocrat
  • Mike RogersRepublican

Seat / incumbent: OPEN (Peters)

Poll history (28)

PollsterField datesResultsSample / methodSource
Marist2026-10-15 to 2026-10-18Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 50%Mike Rogers (Republican) 48%n=1,185 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Marist University2026-10-15 to 2026-10-18Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 50%Mike Rogers (Republican) 48%n unknown / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Rasmussen Reports*2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 46%Mike Rogers (Republican) 44%n=798 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Rasmussen Reports (R)2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 46%Mike Rogers (Republican) 44%n=798 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
InsiderAdvantage2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 48%Mike Rogers (Republican) 46%n=1,200 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
InsiderAdvantage (R)2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 48%Mike Rogers (Republican) 46%n=1,200 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
The Tyson Group2026-10-06 to 2026-10-08Mike Rogers (Republican) 46%Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 44%n=600 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Quantus Insights2026-10-05 to 2026-10-06Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 48%Mike Rogers (Republican) 47%n=762 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Quantus Insights (R)2026-10-05 to 2026-10-06Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 48%Mike Rogers (Republican) 47%n=762 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
YouGov2026-09-28 to 2026-10-05Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 49%Mike Rogers (Republican) 48%n=3,947 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
YouGov2026-09-22 to 2026-10-04Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 49%Mike Rogers (Republican) 48%n=3,949 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Mitchell Research2026-10-01Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 46%Mike Rogers (Republican) 41%n=680 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Z to A Research (D)2026-09-28 to 2026-10-01Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 49%Mike Rogers (Republican) 42%n=483 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Mitchell Research & Communications2026-10-01Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 46%Mike Rogers (Republican) 41%n=682 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Trafalgar Group*2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 47%Mike Rogers (Republican) 45%n=1,085 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Trafalgar Group (R)2026-09-28 to 2026-09-30Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 47%Mike Rogers (Republican) 45%n=1,085 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
FOX News2026-09-24 to 2026-09-28Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 50%Mike Rogers (Republican) 49%n=1,028 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)2026-09-24 to 2026-09-28Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 50%Mike Rogers (Republican) 49%n=1,028 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
The Tyson Group (R)2026-09-24 to 2026-09-27Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 44%Mike Rogers (Republican) 43%n=600 / UnknownPoliwave
Marist University2026-09-24 to 2026-09-27Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 51%Mike Rogers (Republican) 44%n=1,235 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Big Data Poll (R)2026-09-22 to 2026-09-24Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 47%Mike Rogers (Republican) 42%n=678 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
co/efficient (R)2026-09-21 to 2026-09-23Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 45%Mike Rogers (Republican) 45%n=843 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
GBAO (D)2026-09-19 to 2026-09-22Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 48%Mike Rogers (Republican) 44%n=800 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
New York Times/Siena University2026-09-15 to 2026-09-22Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 49%Mike Rogers (Republican) 44%n=605 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Cygnal (R)/Beacon Research (D)2026-09-18 to 2026-09-21Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 45%Mike Rogers (Republican) 40%n=600 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Suffolk University2026-09-16 to 2026-09-20Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 47%Mike Rogers (Republican) 40%n=500 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Torchlight Strategies (R)2026-09-15 to 2026-09-19Mike Rogers (Republican) 44%Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 43%n=643 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
InsiderAdvantage (R)2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 47%Mike Rogers (Republican) 45%n=1,200 / UnknownPoliwave Original release

Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.

See this race in context on the tile map, colored by poll, DDHQ or Cook.

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