Minnesota Senate Race 2026
Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-10-22.
Latest poll
Peggy Flanagan (Democrat)48%
Michele Tafoya (Republican)45%
Trafalgar Group*, fielded 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-15
Cook rating 2026-10-20 · DDHQ forecast 2026-10-22. Win chance, not vote share.
n=1,079 / Not reported by source. RealClearPolling
Lead of 3 pts for Peggy Flanagan in a single poll. Not a win probability.
Ratings and forecast
- Cook rating
- Lean D
- DDHQ rating
- Likely D
- DDHQ Dem win chance
- 81%
- Currently held by
- D
Candidates
- Peggy FlanaganDemocrat
- Michele TafoyaRepublican
Seat / incumbent: OPEN (Smith)
Poll history (19)
| Pollster | Field dates | Results | Sample / method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group* | 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-15 | Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 48%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 45% | n=1,079 / Not reported by source | RealClearPolling Original release |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-15 | Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 48%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 45% | n=1,079 / Unknown | Poliwave Original release |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA* | 2026-10-08 to 2026-10-12 | Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 45%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 42% | n=718 / Not reported by source | RealClearPolling Original release |
| Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon | 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-07 | Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 47%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 43% | n=800 / Not reported by source | RealClearPolling Original release |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-07 | Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 48%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 45% | n=856 / Not reported by source | RealClearPolling Original release |
| Daily Agenda/Morning Consult | 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-07 | Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 45%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 41% | n=1,000 / Not reported by source | RealClearPolling Original release |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-07 | Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 48%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 45% | n=856 / Unknown | Poliwave Original release |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-07 | Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 47%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 43% | n=800 / Unknown | Poliwave Original release |
| Morning Consult (D) | 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-07 | Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 45%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 41% | n=1,000 / Unknown | Poliwave Original release |
| GQR (D) | 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-04 | Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 53%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 44% | n=800 / Unknown | Poliwave Original release |
| Big Data Poll* | 2026-09-29 to 2026-09-30 | Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 46%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 44% | n=622 / Not reported by source | RealClearPolling Original release |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 2026-09-28 to 2026-09-29 | Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 46%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 45% | n=1,200 / Unknown | Poliwave Original release |
| co/efficient | 2026-09-14 to 2026-09-15 | Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 43%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 42% | n=833 / Mobile text responses and live landline interviews of likely general-election voters; weighted by age, gender, race, education, congressional district, and party affiliation. | Poliwave Original release |
| Quantus Insights (R) | 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-10 | Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 48%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 44% | n=720 / Unknown | Poliwave Original release |
| TIPP Insights (R) | 2026-08-31 to 2026-09-02 | Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 44%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 42% | n=1,201 / Unknown | Poliwave Original release |
| Deep Root Analytics (R) | 2026-08-17 to 2026-08-18 | Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 50%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 45% | n=597 / Unknown | Poliwave Original release |
| KTSP/SurveyUSA | 2026-08-13 to 2026-08-17 | Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 46%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 41% | n=661 / Unknown | Poliwave Original release |
| Impact Research (D) | 2026-05-26 to 2026-05-28 | Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 51%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 44% | n=808 / Unknown | Poliwave |
| Emerson College | 2026-02-06 to 2026-02-08 | Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 47%Michele Tafoya (Republican) 40% | n=1,000 / Unknown | Poliwave Original release |
Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.
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