D

North Carolina Senate Race 2026

Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-10-22.

Latest poll

Roy Cooper (Democrat)57%
Michael Whatley (Republican)43%

ActiVote, fielded 2026-09-26 to 2026-10-20

Cook: Likely DDDHQ: 86% D

Cook rating 2026-10-20 · DDHQ forecast 2026-10-22. Win chance, not vote share.

n=400 / Unknown. Poliwave

Lead of 14 pts for Roy Cooper in a single poll. Not a win probability.

Ratings and forecast

Cook rating
Likely D
DDHQ rating
Likely D
DDHQ Dem win chance
86%
Currently held by
R

Cook source DDHQ source Forecast methodology

Candidates

  • Roy CooperDemocrat
  • Michael WhatleyRepublican

Seat / incumbent: OPEN (Tillis)

Poll history (29)

PollsterField datesResultsSample / methodSource
ActiVote2026-09-26 to 2026-10-20Roy Cooper (Democrat) 57%Michael Whatley (Republican) 43%n=400 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
SurveyUSA2026-10-07 to 2026-10-11Roy Cooper (Democrat) 54%Michael Whatley (Republican) 40%n=643 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Trafalgar Group*2026-10-08 to 2026-10-10Roy Cooper (Democrat) 49%Michael Whatley (Republican) 41%n=1,091 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Trafalgar Group (R)2026-10-08 to 2026-10-10Roy Cooper (Democrat) 49%Michael Whatley (Republican) 41%n=1,091 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Elon University*2026-09-29 to 2026-10-08Roy Cooper (Democrat) 52%Michael Whatley (Republican) 39%n=561 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Elon University/YouGov2026-09-29 to 2026-10-08Roy Cooper (Democrat) 52%Michael Whatley (Republican) 39%n=561 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA2026-10-01 to 2026-10-07Roy Cooper (Democrat) 54%Michael Whatley (Republican) 40%n=643 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Carolina Forward/Change Res.*2026-10-01 to 2026-10-07Roy Cooper (Democrat) 50%Michael Whatley (Republican) 40%n=829 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
East Carolina U.*2026-09-30 to 2026-10-03Roy Cooper (Democrat) 50%Michael Whatley (Republican) 43%n=810 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
East Carolina University2026-09-30 to 2026-10-03Roy Cooper (Democrat) 50%Michael Whatley (Republican) 43%n=810 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Big Data Poll2026-09-27 to 2026-09-29Roy Cooper (Democrat) 51%Michael Whatley (Republican) 39%n=642 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Big Data Poll2026-09-27 to 2026-09-29Roy Cooper (Democrat) 47%Michael Whatley (Republican) 35%n=642 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Rasmussen Reports*2026-09-22Roy Cooper (Democrat) 48%Michael Whatley (Republican) 41%n=1,047 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Quantus Insights2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22Roy Cooper (Democrat) 48%Michael Whatley (Republican) 43%n=688 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Quantus Insights (R)2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22Roy Cooper (Democrat) 48%Michael Whatley (Republican) 43%n=686 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Fabrizio/Anzalone2026-09-17 to 2026-09-20Roy Cooper (Democrat) 53%Michael Whatley (Republican) 42%n=1,115 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)2026-09-17 to 2026-09-20Roy Cooper (Democrat) 53%Michael Whatley (Republican) 42%n=1,806 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Opinion Diagnostics2026-09-17 to 2026-09-20Roy Cooper (Democrat) 51%Michael Whatley (Republican) 41%n=857 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
YouGov2026-09-15 to 2026-09-18Roy Cooper (Democrat) 53%Michael Whatley (Republican) 41%n=3,745 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
InsiderAdvantage (R)2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17Roy Cooper (Democrat) 48%Michael Whatley (Republican) 43%n=1,200 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
High Point University2026-09-09 to 2026-09-16Roy Cooper (Democrat) 50%Michael Whatley (Republican) 42%n=706 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Harper Polling/Carolina Journal2026-09-13 to 2026-09-15Roy Cooper (Democrat) 49.2%Michael Whatley (Republican) 34.1%n=608 / North Carolina statewide survey of likely 2026 general-election voters conducted by Harper Polling for Carolina Journal.Poliwave Original release
Catawba College/YouGov2026-09-04 to 2026-09-15Roy Cooper (Democrat) 47%Michael Whatley (Republican) 35%n=885 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Trafalgar Group2026-09-08 to 2026-09-10Roy Cooper (Democrat) 48.2%Michael Whatley (Republican) 42.3%n=1,084 / Trafalgar Group statewide survey of likely general-election voters; response rate 5.0%, 95% confidence.Poliwave Original release
East Carolina University2026-08-31 to 2026-09-03Roy Cooper (Democrat) 46%Michael Whatley (Republican) 39%n=675 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Elon University/YouGov2026-08-21 to 2026-08-31Roy Cooper (Democrat) 49%Michael Whatley (Republican) 38%n=565 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
High Point University/YouGov2026-08-03 to 2026-08-12Roy Cooper (Democrat) 50%Michael Whatley (Republican) 45%n=660 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Harper Polling (R)2026-08-09 to 2026-08-10Roy Cooper (Democrat) 52%Michael Whatley (Republican) 39%n=600 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Change Research (D)2026-08-03 to 2026-08-06Roy Cooper (Democrat) 50%Michael Whatley (Republican) 43%n=915 / UnknownPoliwave Original release

Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.

See this race in context on the tile map, colored by poll, DDHQ or Cook.

Open the polling map All races
D
Elect Democrats

An independent site dedicated to tracking 2026 midterm races and supporting Democratic candidates who fight for working families, protect fundamental rights, and strengthen our democracy.

This site is not affiliated with the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), or any candidate or candidate's committee. It is independently operated. Donation links lead to ActBlue, a third-party fundraising platform.

Connect

Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee. Not affiliated with the DNC, DCCC, or DSCC.

© 2026 Elect Democrats. All rights reserved.