Montana MT-01 House Race 2026
Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-10-22.
Latest poll
Rutgers Eagleton/Montana Free Press, fielded 2026-08-27 to 2026-09-07Stale
Cook rating 2026-10-16 · DDHQ forecast 2026-10-22. Win chance, not vote share.
n=375 / Montana Insights Poll conducted by the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling for Montana Free Press; registered voters were sampled from the voter file, invited by text to complete an online survey, and weighted to statewide voter demographics. House contest (MT-01 Western District subsample n=375, RV) added 2026-10-01 from the MTFP article https://montanafreepress.org/2026/09/14/flint-forstag-in-dead-heat-for-house-seat/. Poliwave
Lead of 1 pts for Aaron Flint in a single poll. Not a win probability.
Ratings and forecast
- Cook rating
- Toss Up
- DDHQ rating
- Lean R
- DDHQ Dem win chance
- 37%
- Currently held by
- R
Candidates
- Sam ForstagDemocrat
- Aaron FlintRepublican
Seat / incumbent: OPEN (Zinke, R)
Poll history (1)
| Pollster | Field dates | Results | Sample / method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers Eagleton/Montana Free Press | 2026-08-27 to 2026-09-07 | Aaron Flint (Republican) 42%Sam Forstag (Democrat) 41% | n=375 / Montana Insights Poll conducted by the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling for Montana Free Press; registered voters were sampled from the voter file, invited by text to complete an online survey, and weighted to statewide voter demographics. House contest (MT-01 Western District subsample n=375, RV) added 2026-10-01 from the MTFP article https://montanafreepress.org/2026/09/14/flint-forstag-in-dead-heat-for-house-seat/ | Poliwave Original release |
Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.
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