D

Montana Senate Race 2026

Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-10-22.

Latest poll

Kurt Alme (Republican)44%
Seth Bodnar (Independent)28%
Alani Bankhead (Democrat)21%
Austin (Libertarian)2%

Quantus Insights, fielded 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-18

Cook: Solid RDDHQ: 11% D

Cook rating 2026-10-20 · DDHQ forecast 2026-10-22. Win chance, not vote share.

n=686 / Not reported by source. RealClearPolling

Lead of 16 pts for Kurt Alme in a single poll. Not a win probability.

Ratings and forecast

Cook rating
Solid R
DDHQ rating
Likely R
DDHQ Dem win chance
11%
Currently held by
R

Cook source DDHQ source Forecast methodology

Candidates

  • Alani BankheadDemocrat
  • Seth BodnarIndependent
  • Kurt AlmeRepublican

Seat / incumbent: OPEN (Daines)

Poll history (16)

PollsterField datesResultsSample / methodSource
Quantus Insights2026-10-15 to 2026-10-18Kurt Alme (Republican) 44%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 28%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 21%Austin (Libertarian) 2%n=686 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Quantus Insights (R)2026-10-15 to 2026-10-18Kurt Alme (Republican) 47%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 31%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 22%n=667 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Peak Insights (R)2026-10-07 to 2026-10-12Kurt Alme (Republican) 44%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 29%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 12%n=500 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Concord Public Opinion Partners2026-10-06 to 2026-10-08Seth Bodnar (Independent) 37%Kurt Alme (Republican) 35%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 13%n=405 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
American Pulse Research2026-09-19 to 2026-09-24Kurt Alme (Republican) 45%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 26%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 19%n=604 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Quantus Insights (R)2026-09-14 to 2026-09-15Kurt Alme (Republican) 44%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 24%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 23%n=625 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Aspect Strategic2026-09-07 to 2026-09-15Kurt Alme (Republican) 44%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 32%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 14%n=715 / UnknownPoliwave
Montana Free Press2026-08-27 to 2026-09-07Kurt Alme (Republican) 38%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 30%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 16%Austin (Libertarian) 5%n=845 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Rutgers Eagleton/Montana Free Press2026-08-27 to 2026-09-07Kurt Alme (Republican) 38%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 30%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 16%n=845 / Montana Insights Poll conducted by the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling for Montana Free Press; registered voters were sampled from the voter file, invited by text to complete an online survey, and weighted to statewide voter demographics. House contest (MT-01 Western District subsample n=375, RV) added 2026-10-01 from the MTFP article https://montanafreepress.org/2026/09/14/flint-forstag-in-dead-heat-for-house-seat/Poliwave Original release
Peak Insights2026-08-23 to 2026-08-25Kurt Alme (Republican) 44%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 22%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 19%n=600 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Hart Research (D)2026-08-01 to 2026-08-04Kurt Alme (Republican) 45%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 30%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 15%n=800 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Tavern Research (D)2026-07-23 to 2026-07-27Kurt Alme (Republican) 49%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 27%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 24%n=517 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
GQR (D)2026-07-23 to 2026-07-26Kurt Alme (Republican) 41%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 27%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 22%n=500 / UnknownPoliwave
Bullfinch Group (R)2026-07-13 to 2026-07-16Kurt Alme (Republican) 36%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 24%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 22%n=793 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Hart Research (D)2026-06-18 to 2026-06-24Kurt Alme (Republican) 47%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 25%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 22%n=800 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Tavern Research (D)2026-06-16 to 2026-06-19Kurt Alme (Republican) 49%Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 26%Seth Bodnar (Independent) 24%n=400 / UnknownPoliwave Original release

Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.

See this race in context on the tile map, colored by poll, DDHQ or Cook.

Open the polling map All races
D
Elect Democrats

An independent site dedicated to tracking 2026 midterm races and supporting Democratic candidates who fight for working families, protect fundamental rights, and strengthen our democracy.

This site is not affiliated with the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), or any candidate or candidate's committee. It is independently operated. Donation links lead to ActBlue, a third-party fundraising platform.

Connect

Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee. Not affiliated with the DNC, DCCC, or DSCC.

© 2026 Elect Democrats. All rights reserved.