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Florida Governor Race 2026

Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-10-22.

Latest poll

Donalds (Republican)49%
Jolly (Democrat)47%

Univ. of North Florida, fielded 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-19

Cook: Lean RDDHQ: 31% D

Cook rating 2026-10-13 · DDHQ forecast 2026-10-22. Win chance, not vote share.

n=1,471 / Not reported by source. RealClearPolling

Lead of 2 pts for Donalds in a single poll. Not a win probability.

Ratings and forecast

Cook rating
Lean R
DDHQ rating
Lean R
DDHQ Dem win chance
31%
Currently held by
R

Cook source DDHQ source Forecast methodology

Candidates

  • David JollyDemocrat
  • Byron DonaldsRepublican

Poll history (12)

PollsterField datesResultsSample / methodSource
Univ. of North Florida2026-10-12 to 2026-10-19Donalds (Republican) 49%Jolly (Democrat) 47%n=1,471 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Univision/YouGov2026-10-02 to 2026-10-15Donalds (Republican) 50%Jolly (Democrat) 42%n=825 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Stetson University**2026-10-01 to 2026-10-09Donalds (Republican) 52%Jolly (Democrat) 41%n=716 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
St. Pete Polls2026-10-05 to 2026-10-07Donalds (Republican) 45%Jolly (Democrat) 45%n=836 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
YouGov2026-09-24 to 2026-10-03Donalds (Republican) 47%Jolly (Democrat) 45%n=3,813 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
NBC 6/Mason-Dixon2026-09-28 to 2026-10-01Donalds (Republican) 48%Jolly (Democrat) 41%n=625 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Stetson University**2026-09-14 to 2026-09-21Donalds (Republican) 51%Jolly (Democrat) 39%n=830 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
St. Pete Polls2026-09-15 to 2026-09-17Donalds (Republican) 44%Jolly (Democrat) 43%n=913 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Univ. of North Florida2026-07-08 to 2026-07-17Donalds (Republican) 46%Jolly (Democrat) 41%n=848 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Stetson University**2026-03-15 to 2026-04-13Donalds (Republican) 47%Jolly (Democrat) 40%n=848 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Emerson2026-03-29 to 2026-03-31Donalds (Republican) 44%Jolly (Democrat) 39%n=1,125 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Univ. of North Florida2026-02-21 to 2026-03-02Donalds (Republican) 42%Jolly (Democrat) 36%n=786 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release

Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.

See this race in context on the tile map, colored by poll, DDHQ or Cook.

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