D

Florida Senate Race 2026

Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-10-22.

Latest poll

Ashley Moody (Republican)48%
Angie Nixon (Democrat)40%

co/efficient*, fielded 2026-10-18 to 2026-10-20

Cook: Solid RDDHQ: 22% D

Cook rating 2026-10-20 · DDHQ forecast 2026-10-22. Win chance, not vote share.

n=1,014 / Not reported by source. RealClearPolling

Lead of 8 pts for Ashley Moody in a single poll. Not a win probability.

Ratings and forecast

Cook rating
Solid R
DDHQ rating
Likely R
DDHQ Dem win chance
22%
Currently held by
R

Cook source DDHQ source Forecast methodology

Candidates

  • Angie NixonDemocrat
  • Ashley MoodyRepublican

Seat / incumbent: Moody

Poll history (25)

PollsterField datesResultsSample / methodSource
co/efficient*2026-10-18 to 2026-10-20Ashley Moody (Republican) 48%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 40%n=1,014 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Univ. of North Florida2026-10-12 to 2026-10-19Ashley Moody (Republican) 49%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 45%n=1,471 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
University of North Florida2026-10-12 to 2026-10-19Ashley Moody (Republican) 49%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 45%n=1,471 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Univision/YouGov2026-10-02 to 2026-10-15Ashley Moody (Republican) 51%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 42%n=825 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
ActiVote2026-09-27 to 2026-10-15Ashley Moody (Republican) 53%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 47%n=400 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
MDW Communications2026-10-04 to 2026-10-10Ashley Moody (Republican) 48%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 42%n=2,351 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Stetson University**2026-10-01 to 2026-10-09Ashley Moody (Republican) 52%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 41%n=716 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
St. Pete Polls2026-10-05 to 2026-10-07Ashley Moody (Republican) 47%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 45%n=836 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
YouGov2026-09-28 to 2026-10-05Ashley Moody (Republican) 49%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 44%n=3,813 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
James Madison Institute2026-09-28 to 2026-10-04Ashley Moody (Republican) 52%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 42%n=1,171 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
YouGov2026-09-24 to 2026-10-03Ashley Moody (Republican) 49%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 44%n=3,812 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
NBC 6/Mason-Dixon2026-09-28 to 2026-10-01Ashley Moody (Republican) 50%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 40%n=625 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Change Research (D)2026-09-25 to 2026-09-27Ashley Moody (Republican) 48%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 47%n=1,063 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
InsiderAdvantage2026-09-20 to 2026-09-21Ashley Moody (Republican) 49%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 42%n=600 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
InsiderAdvantage (R)2026-09-20 to 2026-09-21Ashley Moody (Republican) 49%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 42%n=600 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Stetson University2026-09-14 to 2026-09-21Ashley Moody (Republican) 51%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 40%n=830 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
St. Pete Polls/FloridaPolitics.com2026-09-15 to 2026-09-17Ashley Moody (Republican) 45.2%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 44.8%n=913 / Florida statewide likely-voter survey conducted for FloridaPolitics.com by automated telephone and peer-to-peer SMS, weighted by party, race, age, gender, and media market.Poliwave Original release
Quantus Insights2026-09-08 to 2026-09-10Ashley Moody (Republican) 50%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 43%n=733 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Quantus Insights (R)2026-09-08 to 2026-09-10Ashley Moody (Republican) 50%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 43%n=733 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Change Research (D)2026-09-07 to 2026-09-09Ashley Moody (Republican) 47%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 47%n=1,107 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
University of North Florida2026-07-08 to 2026-07-17Ashley Moody (Republican) 50%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 42%n=848 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Change Research (D)2026-07-09 to 2026-07-11Ashley Moody (Republican) 45%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 37%n=1,348 / UnknownPoliwave
McLaughlin & Associates (R)2026-06-03 to 2026-06-07Ashley Moody (Republican) 47%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 40%n=800 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Global Strategy Group (D)2026-05-18 to 2026-05-21Ashley Moody (Republican) 46%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 43%n=1,000 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Cherry Communications (R)2026-05-01 to 2026-05-09Ashley Moody (Republican) 48%Angie Nixon (Democrat) 40%n=604 / UnknownPoliwave Original release

Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.

See this race in context on the tile map, colored by poll, DDHQ or Cook.

Open the polling map All races
D
Elect Democrats

An independent site dedicated to tracking 2026 midterm races and supporting Democratic candidates who fight for working families, protect fundamental rights, and strengthen our democracy.

This site is not affiliated with the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), or any candidate or candidate's committee. It is independently operated. Donation links lead to ActBlue, a third-party fundraising platform.

Connect

Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee. Not affiliated with the DNC, DCCC, or DSCC.

© 2026 Elect Democrats. All rights reserved.