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Texas Senate Race 2026

Latest sourced poll, full poll history, Cook and DDHQ ratings, and candidates. Research snapshot checked 2026-10-22.

Latest poll

James Talarico (Democrat)51%
Ken Paxton (Republican)49%

ActiVote, fielded 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-21

Cook: Toss UpDDHQ: 57% D

Cook rating 2026-10-20 · DDHQ forecast 2026-10-22. Win chance, not vote share.

n=400 / Unknown. Poliwave

Lead of 2 pts for James Talarico in a single poll. Not a win probability.

Ratings and forecast

Cook rating
Toss Up
DDHQ rating
Toss Up
DDHQ Dem win chance
57%
Currently held by
R

Cook source DDHQ source Forecast methodology

Candidates

  • James TalaricoDemocrat
  • Ken PaxtonRepublican

Seat / incumbent: OPEN (Cornyn)

Poll history (28)

PollsterField datesResultsSample / methodSource
ActiVote2026-10-15 to 2026-10-21James Talarico (Democrat) 51%Ken Paxton (Republican) 49%n=400 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
FOX News2026-10-15 to 2026-10-19James Talarico (Democrat) 49%Ken Paxton (Republican) 49%n=1,398 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)2026-10-15 to 2026-10-19James Talarico (Democrat) 49%Ken Paxton (Republican) 49%n=1,398 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
CBS News2026-10-08 to 2026-10-16James Talarico (Democrat) 51%Ken Paxton (Republican) 49%n=1,458 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
InsiderAdvantage*2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14Ken Paxton (Republican) 49%James Talarico (Democrat) 48%n=1,200 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
University of Houston*2026-10-10 to 2026-10-14James Talarico (Democrat) 48%Ken Paxton (Republican) 46%n=2,000 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
InsiderAdvantage (R)2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14Ken Paxton (Republican) 49%James Talarico (Democrat) 48%n=1,200 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
ActiVote2026-09-30 to 2026-10-14James Talarico (Democrat) 52%Ken Paxton (Republican) 48%n=400 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Cook Political Report*2026-10-09 to 2026-10-13James Talarico (Democrat) 49%Ken Paxton (Republican) 44%n=934 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
GS Strategy Group (R)/New River Strategies (D)2026-10-09 to 2026-10-13James Talarico (Democrat) 49%Ken Paxton (Republican) 44%n=934 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Quantus Insights*2026-10-09 to 2026-10-11James Talarico (Democrat) 47%Ken Paxton (Republican) 47%n=839 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Marist2026-10-08 to 2026-10-11James Talarico (Democrat) 47%Ken Paxton (Republican) 45%n=1,196 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Trafalgar Group*2026-10-06 to 2026-10-08James Talarico (Democrat) 47%Ken Paxton (Republican) 44%n=1,086 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
ReconMR/Siena2026-10-05 to 2026-10-08James Talarico (Democrat) 48%Ken Paxton (Republican) 44%n=617 / Not reported by sourceRealClearPolling Original release
Trafalgar Group (R)2026-10-06 to 2026-10-08James Talarico (Democrat) 47%Ken Paxton (Republican) 44%n=1,086 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
YouGov2026-09-28 to 2026-10-05James Talarico (Democrat) 50%Ken Paxton (Republican) 44%n=3,625 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
University of Texas/Texas Politics Project2026-09-25 to 2026-10-05James Talarico (Democrat) 50%Ken Paxton (Republican) 47%n=861 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
New York Times/Siena University2026-09-21 to 2026-09-30James Talarico (Democrat) 51%Ken Paxton (Republican) 45%n=615 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Rasmussen Reports2026-09-23 to 2026-09-29James Talarico (Democrat) 46%Ken Paxton (Republican) 45%n=1,128 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research (R)2026-09-24 to 2026-09-28James Talarico (Democrat) 51%Ken Paxton (Republican) 49%n=881 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Pulse Decision Science (R)2026-09-24 to 2026-09-27Ken Paxton (Republican) 48%James Talarico (Democrat) 45%n=800 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Big Data Poll2026-09-24 to 2026-09-26James Talarico (Democrat) 47%Ken Paxton (Republican) 45%n=698 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Stratus Intelligence (R)2026-09-22 to 2026-09-24James Talarico (Democrat) 48%Ken Paxton (Republican) 48%n=856 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Texas Public Opinion Research (D)2026-09-19 to 2026-09-22James Talarico (Democrat) 49%Ken Paxton (Republican) 44%n=1,007 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Marist University2026-09-17 to 2026-09-20James Talarico (Democrat) 50%Ken Paxton (Republican) 44%n=1,139 / UnknownPoliwave Original release
Trafalgar Group2026-09-15 to 2026-09-17James Talarico (Democrat) 46.4%Ken Paxton (Republican) 45.2%n=1,079 / Trafalgar Group statewide survey of likely general-election voters; response rate 5.1%, 95% confidence.Poliwave Original release
Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Texas2026-09-12 to 2026-09-14James Talarico (Democrat) 47.4%Ken Paxton (Republican) 46.4%n=1,000 / MMS text-to-web recruitment from a probability-based voter panel with additional PureSpectrum panel interviews; weighted by gender, education, race, age, and region.Poliwave Original release
SoCal Strategies2026-09-12 to 2026-09-13James Talarico (Democrat) 50%Ken Paxton (Republican) 45%n=649 / UnknownPoliwave Original release

Polls via secondary aggregators, not independently audited. Not a live feed.

See this race in context on the tile map, colored by poll, DDHQ or Cook.

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